CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- A fast-moving system will move across the Charlotte area this evening and tonight bringing a slight chance of snow flurries or sprinkles.
The atmospheric disturbance moving out of Texas will approach the area this evening. Ahead of the disturbance this afternoon clouds will be on the increase.
Mostly cloudy skies will keep temperatures in the cool low to mid-40s today.
Moisture is fairly limited and the disturbance will be moving very quickly, so the chance for much measurable precipitation is less than 20%.
As it moves directly overhead this evening and early tonight, the disturbance will try to squeeze out a few snowflakes or rain drops across the area.
Absolutely no accumulation is expected.
Next week has a great winter storm potential.
Chief Meteorologist Brad Panovich
Next weeks pattern bears watching much closer as both cold air should be in place to our north and a stronger low pressure system forms along the Gulf Coast. The track of the low is key but also where the source of cold air sets up.
Below are 3 scenarios of the track of the low pressure system.
Track #1 would give the Charlotte area a good wintry mix mess, with snow to the north and rain to the south.
Track #2 would give the Charlotte area more snow, while Track #3 would keep us in a cold rain scenario.
Current guidance suggests Track #1 as the winning scenario, but remember small changes can have huge impacts on what fall where.
New data this morning from the GFS model or American model shows the position of the low staying pretty close to the Gulf coast. The other issue is the position of the cold high pressure. Which looks to be in a favorable spot for Cold Air Damming.
This scenario points to ice potential as warm moist air rides up and over the cold surface air creating freezing rain.
The trend is still for a wintry mix but also trending away from a purely snow event. My main concern is for a wintry mix leaning heavily towards an ice set up.
The models always struggle with cold shallow air and especially with cold air damming like we see in the western Carolinas. The one thing that makes me think the cold air will hold on a little stronger is the amount of snow cover to the north that has been laid down over the past few weeks.
The large area of snow helps to keep cold air masses much colder than they would be over bare ground. It keeps them from modifying or warming up.
So stay tuned over the next few days as our colder than average pattern continues and we get more frequent storm every 2-3 days.