Small chance for snow on Saturday evening

Small chance for snow on Saturday evening

Small chance for snow on Saturday evening

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by Brad Panovich / First warn Chief Meteorologist

Bio | Email | Follow: @wxbrad

WCNC.com

Posted on February 14, 2013 at 12:22 PM

Updated Friday, Nov 8 at 11:30 AM

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- I've been tracking the chance for some snow this weekend all week long.

Earlier in the week it looked like we might actually see something that could accumulate. In the past 2 days the data has trended way down to just flurries.

Even though the trend has been down it's never really gone to zero. Today there is still solid flurry chances for the Piedmont.

The odd part of this system is the fact that there is actually better chances to our south and east towards the coast.

We still have plenty of cold air this weekend as Arctic air arrives Friday night. There just isn't much moisture around Saturday outside of the mountains.

The thing that keeps our chances going is how strong the "energy" is in the mid levels of the atmosphere.

This "energy" will create some lift to form clouds but it just has very limited moisture to work with. 

This weak low tries to form off the Carolina coast and bring a very brief period of snow across the Piedmont.

So for Saturday when I look at what we call the ensembles you can see the average of all the model runs still spits out about 0.2" of snow.

Which none will accumulate. From the same ensemble you can look at the actually chances of snow or rain.

Snow chances are about 30%. These ensembles are made up of 22 models,  then we take the average output to eliminate the extremes or outliers. These can be seen below.

Forecast:

It will be cold and windy on Saturday with highs only in the low 40s. In the afternoon and evening some isolated snow flurries likely with no accumulations.

Turning much colder Saturday night with lows near 22°. Snow meter is at a 1 right now. 

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