NYT Poll: Clinton & Cooper leading in North Carolina

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has taken the lead in North Carolina, particularly amongst women, according to a New York Times poll released Tuesday morning.

The former Secretary of State has cultivated a 7 percentage point lead over Donald Trump with 46 percent to 39 percent, according to a survey conducted by the New York Times' Upshot section and Siena College.

Clinton is particularly favored with the North Carolina's female population. When asked to choose a candidate to vote for today, Clinton trumped Trump with a 17 point lead in the female margin. The survey has Clinton with 53 percent of North Carolinian women voting for her and 36 percent voting for Trump.

This lead could result in the largest gender gap in a presidential election's history.

 

 

According to the Center for the American Woman and Politics (CAWP), if this were the case, the Clinton's would be beating their own record. Bill Clinton's 1996 run had an 11 points lead of female voters over Republican Bob Dole. 

A close second was the 2012 presidential election. Barack Obama held a 10 point lead with women over Mitt Romney, according to CAWP.

Clinton's lead has gained exponentially since the last New York Times/Siena College poll. The prior poll, conducted in mid-September had Clinton and Trump tied at 41 percent.

The Tar Heel state is significant because of it's swinging past. The state holds the title for the second closest race in the past two elections. In 2008 Barack Obama defeat John McCain in the second-closest race, behind Missouri. In 2012, North Carolina swung over to Mitt Romney with a two percent lead, the second-closest after Florida.

With 15 electoral votes, a North Carolina win would be ground-breaking for either party, but it is essential for Trump. 

"The real estate mogul must win a variety of swing states in order to have even a shot at the presidency, and North Carolina's 15 electoral votes are essential to his chances," Politico says.

Earlier in October, MSNBC's political correspondent, Steve Kornacki, said if Clinton won North Carolina, she would essentially win the election with over 270 electoral votes. 

"Lose (North) Carolina, if you're Trump, you've lost the election," Kornacki said

The poll also has Clinton leading with nonwhite voters in the state. Within the African American population, Clinton leads with 88 percent to Trump's two-percent and 74 percent to 11 percent in North Carolina's Hispanic population.

Trump and Clinton are tied at 45 percent in the poll for North Carolina residents between the ages of 50 to 64. 

The real estate mogul beat Clinton with a four-point lead among those with less than a college education. 

The poll also lists a democratic lead for North Carolina's race for governor. Attorney General and democratic challenger Roy Cooper has a six-point lead over Republican Governor Pat McCrory.

Similarly to the presidential calculations, Cooper's lead is significant with the female population in North Carolina. He stands ahead of McCrory with a 20 point lead while the present governor has a 10 point lead among the state's men. 

The poll was conducted from October 20 to 23 and surveyed 792 North Carolina likely voters. According to the New York Times, this poll is different than most polls sponsored by major media organizations. While most surveys gather their information by contacting voters through dialing random telephone numbers, The New York Times Upshot/Siena College says their poll uses records from state voter registration files, "a data set covering every registered voter in the country."

Click here to view the New York Time Upshot - Siena College Poll.

Copyright 2016 WCNC


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