Brad Panovich: Tracking the chance for snow this weekend

Brad Panovich: Tracking the chance for snow this weekend

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by Brad Panovich / First Warn Chief Meteorologist

Bio | Email | Follow: @wxbrad

WCNC.com

Posted on February 11, 2013 at 1:46 PM

Updated Monday, Nov 11 at 4:32 PM

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- The weather pattern is starting to look more conducive for some winter weather across the Carolinas late this week and into the weekend.

While the model data isn't overly impressive, it's still none the less cold enough for some snow.

A large trough of low pressure will take over the eastern half of the country by late this week. Then late Friday into Saturday low pressure tries to form near the Gulf of Mexico and then re-form near the Carolina coast line.

This transition from two lows to one can be very tricky around here. This storm will eventually explode near the coast late Saturday and become a major nor'easter. Then depending on the track could bring more snow to the Northeast.

Snow chances for Charlotte?

With this transition to the coast there will be just enough moisture from the GFS model and some support from the ECMWF model for light snow across the Piedmont.

The following images are six hour snowfall forecasts from the GFS model. It's important to note that this is just guidance and not an actually forecast.

As we get closer I will issue a specific forecast for our area. Right now this is to illustrate the "chance" for snow six days out. Each frame is a six hour snow total in the model data. 

The bottom line:

At this distance into the future you can only look at the pattern that is developing. Which right now is favorable for some snow somewhere in the Southeast.

As we get closer to the end of the week I will have a much better idea on the chances and possible amounts. For now this is just a heads up to the possibilities and as of this posting my snow meter stands at a 1.

GFS model total snow through Sunday night:

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