CHARLOTTE, N.C. — After two months of big improvements in COVID-19 cases and other metrics, there are signs progress could be slowing -- or worse -- preparing to backslide.
As coronavirus restrictions loosen and more businesses reopen, health experts expected some regions would see a bump in the data trends as people start interacting more. Officials warn now is not the time to act as though the pandemic is over.
This week, North Carolina's declines in daily cases and positivity rate appeared to slow, and the weekly COVID-19 update from Mecklenburg County showed the first sustained rise in metrics since January.
The changes were slight, but county data showed per capita coronavirus cases briefly dipped out of the red zone but have started to move back upward, and the positivity rate shows similar trends over the last week.
Earlier this week, North Carolina's Health and Human Services Secretary Mandy Cohen said the changes in the state's numbers caught her eye.
"That downward trend looks like it could be starting to slow down and plateau. We'll need to keep an eye on this, particularly with the new variants we are seeing in the state," Cohen said.
Health officials point to a cautionary tale playing out in more than a dozen states right now, as new case spikes are happening and the more-contagious B.1.1.7 variant, also called the U.K. variant, is gaining ground.
In parts of Europe -- a third wave is underway, too, prompting reinstated lockdowns.
With Spring Break and other spring holidays approaching, officials are calling for responsible behavior.
Friday, Mecklenburg Public Health issued travel guidance asking county residents to avoid traveling, saying the higher-risk activity can offer limited opportunities for social distancing and more interactions with other people.
Right now, Mecklenburg County Health Director Gibbie Harris is hoping for one thing.
"That people are smart, and intentional and use good common sense to make decisions about how to engage with others in our community," Harris said.
Dr. David Priest, an infectious disease specialist with Novant Health, reminds us that perspective with the COVID-19 numbers is important right now, noting that progress with the metrics might not be as far along as people think.
"November, December, and January, that peak got so high that we're now to a point where we think... we're almost back to normal, but in reality, we're very close to the numbers we had close to mid to late summer," Priest said. "COVID is still out there, and we are still seeing cases."
This week, NCDHHS updated its county alert map, showing only one county in the red/substantial viral spread zone. The rest of the state remained in yellow and orange zones. While that is a major improvement from the holidays, when the state peaked at 86 red-zone counties, yellow and orange levels still denote "significant" and "substantial" spread, respectively.
While vaccinations certainly have a part to play in reaching the finish line, the data shows there are still more miles to travel.
According to the latest NCDHHS numbers, more than 85% of the state's population is not fully vaccinated.