For the last several days we have been watching this tropical wave between the West African coast and the Leeward Islands. The newest trend is showing us some good news! Right now (as of 11 p.m. Saturday) winds with this wave are at 30 mph sustained but will struggle to organized enough to be deemed a Tropical Depression.

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NOTE: By definition, a Tropical Depression is: An organized tropical cyclone with a closed wind circulation with maximum surface sustained winds up to 38 mph. Winds from 39-73 mph with an organized closed circulation, would mean an upgrade to Tropical Storm Status.

At this moment, this wave has the right wind speeds but strong upper-level winds are going to impede its development. Tropical cyclones are not able to develop their tight circulation around a closed center if winds aloft are too strong. This is known as wind shear (change in wind speed with height).

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This graphic below shows the spaghetti plots through Monday. At this point, the center of this wave will be in the yellow and red meaning moderate to high wind shear. This means this will likely NOT be our 4th Tropical Depression of 2019. Things can still change but likely as of the first weekend of August, there is not much out there to be concerned about!

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